Small Fluctuations in Turnout or Support Can Be Decisive in November
Washington, D.C.— People For the American Way and EquisLabs today unveiled new electoral simulations that offer a stark illustration of how critical the Latinx vote will be in five battleground states this fall: Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada. The analysis shows that even slight fluctuations of a percentage point in either Latinx support or Latinx turnout could make the difference between a Trump or Biden win in these states.
The simulations by EquisLabs identify when and where the Latinx vote has the potential to be pivotal to the outcome of the election under a range of credible scenarios. The analyses are based on information about the size and racial/ethnic composition of each state, and the credible range of Biden support and overall vote share for key racial/ethnic groups in each state.
Listen to a press briefing on the findings here: https://soundcloud.com/peoplefor/audio-only-final
Read the full analysis here: equisresearch.us/polls
Key findings include:
- Biden needs the Latinx vote to win in Arizona even if he exceeds the number of white votes garnered by either Clinton or Sinema in the most recent elections.
- Although the Latinx electorate in North Carolina is relatively small, it has the potential to be pivotal under certain conditions.
- In Florida, if Biden garners the historic average level of white support, he loses unless he gets maximum levels of Latinx turnout and support.
- In Nevada, Biden needs to increase his margins with Latinx voters and rely on higher Latinx turnout to win, if he matches the share of the white vote that Clinton got in 2016.
- In Pennsylvania, Biden can win with strong Latinx support and turnout even if his white support drops to a point just above previous Clinton and Obama levels, and Black turnout share doesn’t exceed 2016 levels.
“This election is balancing on a knife’s edge in key states, and the data make it clear: Latino voters can make all the difference,” said Ben Jealous, President of People For the American Way. “It’s critically important that we invest in outreach to the Latino community and make the case for why we deserve their vote. Donald Trump has failed them. There has never been a clearer choice for the future of our country: will we continue down the path of bigotry, hostility, violence and harm, or will we seize the opportunity to pursue justice, opportunity and dignity for all our communities. As progressives it’s our job to communicate that, and we will be doing everything in our power to get Latino voters to turn out this fall.”
“Latino voters can decide this election, not just in states where they are a large portion of the electorate, but in several key battlegrounds across the country. Not only have we seen this through our work with PFAW’s Latinos Vote program in states like Nevada, but also in Wisconsin and Virginia,” said Dolores Huerta, civil rights activist and board member of People For the American Way. “When candidates and the democratic infrastructure invest in our community, reach out to us, and show they are willing to stand up for us, we can make all the difference at the polls. And that’s what we need to do to put a stop to Trump’s bigotry and hate.”
“Any way you cut it, the path to 270 runs through the Latino community,” said Stephanie Valencia, Co-Founder of EquisLabs. “Whether it is the Latino bellwethers of Arizona, Nevada, and Florida, or the boosts that Latinos can give in Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, Latinos are a core part of the path to victory this election. The Latino electorate is not a monolith and that is clear as you as you run through each of these state simulations, and that there is no one size fits all approach.”
“Our aim is to identify when and where the Latino vote has the potential to be pivotal to the outcome of the election, not to make a prediction about the ultimate outcome of the election” said Carlos Odio, Co-Founder & Senior Vice President of EquisLabs. “We see two kinds of states. Florida, Arizona, and Nevada are ‘Latino bulwarks’ where Latinx performance is uniquely critical to a Democratic win in most scenarios. North Carolina and Pennsylvania are ‘Latino boosts’ where Latinx performance plays a pivotal role in a tight contest.”
EquisLabs is a resource for leaders in the Latinx community who have ideas with the potential to create a more active Latinx electorate, but haven’t yet found the support they need to launch or reach scale, especially in the areas of data, research and communication. We offer funding, leadership development and fellowship, and the space to experiment.
About People For the American Way
People For the American Way is a progressive advocacy organization founded to fight right-wing extremism and build a democratic society that implements the ideals of freedom, equality, opportunity and justice for all. We encourage civic participation, defend fundamental rights, and fight to dismantle systemic barriers to equitable opportunity. Learn more: https://www.pfaw.org.