If you’re anything like me, you’re counting down the minutes until the polls close and we can finally see how this election will turn out.

For people like us, Nate Silver at 538 has a cogent explanation of why one should ignore the allure of exit polls and wait for the real data to come in.

Silver has shown himself to be one of the sharpest statisticians in the game, and I have no reason to doubt a word he says.  Still, if someone shows me exit poll data, will I really be able to ignore it?  Probably not.