First published in The Hill.

In just a few days, the first votes will be cast in elections that face intense scrutiny every time — and never more so than this year.

Early voting in Virginia’s off-year statewide elections starts Friday.  The races are the curtain-raiser for national elections the following year, and analysts will be all over them trying to gauge the political mood — especially ahead of a presidential election year.

Four years ago in 2019, Democrats flipped the Virginia legislature, and Joe Biden went on to defeat Donald Trump in 2020.  Four years earlier than that, with control of the Virginia Senate described as “on a knife’s edge,” the GOP rallied to keep both chambers — and the following year Trump won the presidency.

Read the full op-ed in The Hill.